Despite Low Approval Rating and Impeachment Inquiry, Poll Shows Majority of Voters Believe Trump Could Win in 2020

Despite President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings and successful election results Tuesday for Democratic lawmakers across the country, a new poll finds most Americans are far from convinced that the president will be defeated in 2020.

A Politico/Morning Consult survey taken between Nov. 1 and 3 found that out of nearly 2,000 respondents, 56 percent said they think it’s at least somewhat likely that Trump will win reelection.

“The way Trump will win in 2020 is if a whole lot of people convince themselves it is impossible he could win and allow that to justify their own complacency.”
—Susan Hennessey, Lawfare

The feeling was shared by Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike and appeared linked to a strong motivation for both groups to vote next year.

Nearly 70 percent of respondents described themselves as “very motivated” to vote, and about three-quarters of those registered as Republicans or Democrats said they were motivated. Most Republicans said they felt “hopeful” and “confident” looking ahead to the election, while Democrats said they felt “worried” but also hopeful.

“President Trump’s reelection prospects seem to be energizing voter enthusiasm across the political spectrum,” Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult’s vice president, said in a statement.

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The survey comes days after the latest polling regarding Trump’s approval rating showed that only 39 percent of voters currently support the president while 58 percent disapprove of him.

In hypothetical match-ups against the top Democratic candidates running in the 2020 primary, according to the Washington Post-ABC poll released Tuesday, the president trailed by significant margins; former Vice President Joe Biden led by 17 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) led by 15 percent, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) led by 14 percent.