STRASBOURG — One speed. One currency. One president.
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Wednesday laid out his vision for a more unified and politically-accountable European Union after Brexit, which would combine the presidencies of the Commission and the Council, complete the euro currency zone, and generally push the bloc to take “a democratic leap forward” in unison and at a single speed.
Speaking in deeply personal terms in his annual State of the Union address to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Juncker called for a special summit to be held in Romania after the U.K. leaves the EU at the end of March 2019, where leaders would transform EU governance by combining the top two presidencies into a single post, to be filled through an election campaign.
It was a remarkable proposal, given that the EU is often mocked as a bureaucracy that only adds presidencies. Currently it has five: the Commission; Council; Parliament; European Central Bank; and Eurogroup. Juncker’s vision would leave just three, by placing responsibility for the eurozone with a Commission vice president effectively acting as economics and finance minister.
In proposing to combine the top two jobs in Brussels, Juncker stressed that he would not run for a second term at the Commission in 2019, and that he was not criticizing Council President Donald Tusk, whose second and final term ends that year.
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“Europe would function better if we were to merge the presidents of the European Commission and the European Council,” Juncker said, adding: “Europe would be easier to understand if one captain was steering the ship. Having a single president would better reflect the true nature of our European Union as both a union of states and a union of citizens.”
But Juncker’s call for re-envisioning EU leadership, less than a decade after the creation of the standalone Council presidency, risked being seen as a power grab — for the Commission if not for Juncker personally — and therefore dismissed by national leaders well aware of the fierce inter-institutional rivalry between the Commission and the Council.
Indeed, his proposal hit immediate resistance. “Let’s not mix roles and competences,” Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen tweeted in swift response. “Need @eucopresident as voice of member states.”
Juncker’s speech won high marks, at least among pro-EU listeners, for being bold and forward-looking, and with sharp focus on many of the bloc’s key priorities. And the high priority that Juncker and his team placed on the address, including a major publicity campaign, grew out of their conviction that this was the moment to begin shaping his legacy and putting a lasting stamp on Europe.
Still, there is a good chance that many of his plans will go nowhere, or will have to be scaled back.
As with all big EU decisions, most of Juncker’s vision — including his call for a shift away from the unanimity required for big EU decisions — will require the unanimous approval of EU leaders. And some veteran officials said they detected no appetite for tinkering with the delicate system of checks and balances established by the Lisbon Treaty in 2009.
“Leaders have made it clear in Bratislava and most lately in Rome that they want the EU to deliver on the concerns of citizens and not get distracted by institutional debates,” one senior EU official said, referring to recent Council summits.
As has become his tradition, Juncker delivered the speech in English, French and German, and this year’s address offered a detailed policy blueprint for his final two years in office, in which he clearly hopes to shape his legacy. He also put forward his own answer to the debate on the future of Europe that the Commission kicked off in a white paper earlier this year.
The white paper offered up five scenarios, including allowing for a so-called “multi-speed” Europe in which some countries that wanted deeper cooperation could pursue it. But Juncker described his own, personal “sixth scenario,” which in many ways was far more ambitious, with a completed single currency zone, and a single-speed Europe with its foot firmly on the accelerator.
Thick and thin
In one of many policy proposals, Juncker called for empowering the recently-created European public prosecutor with authority to enforce common anti-terrorism laws. While it is far from clear how, or even if, such a proposal could be carried out, it showed Juncker is intent on seizing a role for the EU in addressing one of the top priorities of citizens across Europe.
Juncker also called for shifting away, in some cases, particularly on foreign policy and defense, from the unanimity required in most Council votes as a way to speed up EU decision-making. That proposal, however, was likely to draw a quizzical response in national capitals, especially Berlin, over whether faster decisions were ever worth exposing divisions between EU countries on foreign policy matters.
In putting forward his vision, Juncker, a former 19-year prime minister of Luxembourg, loudly proclaimed his own expertise and authority to lead the EU in what he called the “time to move from reflection to action; from debate to decision.”
“I have lived and worked for the European project my entire life,” said Juncker. “At times I have suffered with and because of Europe and even despaired for it. Through thick and thin, I have never lost my love of Europe. But there is rarely love without pain.”
In pursuit of his more unified EU, Juncker called for immediately extending the Schengen visa-free travel zone to Bulgaria and Romania, which remain outside despite a decade of membership in the bloc. He also called for incorporating Croatia into the Schengen zone “once it meets all the criteria.”
Throughout his presidency, Juncker has grappled with the growing divide between Eastern and Western Europe, and he used his speech to try to bridge the gap. Rather than upbraiding Poland, which has clashed repeatedly with Brussels in recent months over changes to its judicial system, Juncker made strong overtures to other eastern nations.
In addition to urging the inclusion of Bulgaria and Romania in Schengen, he addressed the problem of dual food standards — a major concern in the east. The offer of assistance for countries joining the currency zone and the opposition to a multi-speed approach, which many in the east fear will leave them behind, also served as an olive branch.
Instead of any pointed criticism of Poland, Juncker opted for strong lines on rule-of-law and respect for European Court of Justice decisions. “The judgements of the court have to be respected by all,” he said. “To undermine them, or to undermine the independence of national courts, is to strip citizens of their fundamental rights.”
To complete the currency zone, Juncker said the EU should make an offer that is nearly impossible for countries that have not yet adopted the euro to refuse to do so — by creating a “euro-accession instrument” and offering technical and financial assistance.
That push would be bolstered by also completing the banking union, which Juncker called “a matter of urgency.” And he said the financial advances would only work if the EU adopted a “pillar of social rights” to protect workers and pensioners and guarantee common standards.
In many ways, Juncker’s financial and economic proposals clashed sharply with the vision put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron. And in carefully calibrating his remarks about an EU finance minister, and rejecting Macron’s idea of a eurozone parliament, Juncker sided solidly with the more cautious approach of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
While those positions may put him east-of-center in a potential tug-of-war between Paris and Berlin, Juncker also loaded his speech with legacy-building initiatives that look beyond Europe’s internal debates, including pushing aggressively for new international trade agreements that would cement the EU’s position as the leading champion of global free trade.
“Partners across the globe are lining up at our door to conclude trade agreements with us,” he declared, adding that deals with Australia and New Zealand were at the top of the list, with Mexico and South American countries not far behind. It is, however, a strategy full of risk and potential pitfalls — none of which Juncker noted in his address.
Aging continent
On migration, Juncker effectively declared victory in the EU’s handling of the 2015 crisis, but he acknowledged much more remained to be done. And the cost of victory was also evident, as Juncker adopted much rhetoric that previously was associated with hard-right EU leaders like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
“People who have no right to stay in Europe must be returned to their countries of origin,” he said. “When only 36 percent of irregular migrants are returned, it is clear we need to significantly step up our work.” He stressed the importance of partnership with Africa, essentially paying countries to stem the tide of refugees, while noting that maintaining a process for legal immigration was important. “Legal migration is a necessity for Europe as an aging continent,” he said.
Juncker called for keeping the door open to new EU members, but said there was no qualified candidate on the horizon, effectively crushing Turkey’s chances without officially doing so. “This rules out EU membership for Turkey for the foreseeable future,” he said.
On a political level, Juncker made a robust argument in favor of increasing the role of electoral politics in determining the EU leadership, and he defended the lead candidates or Spitzenkandidaten process that was put in place in 2014 and led to his own election as the nominee of the European People’s Party.
“If you want to strengthen European democracy, then you cannot reverse the democratic progress seen with the creation of lead candidates – Spitzenkandidaten,” he said.
“To understand the challenges of his or her job and the diversity of our member states, a future president should have met citizens in the town halls of Helsinki as well as in the squares of Athens,” he continued. “In my personal experience of such a campaign, it makes you more humble, but also strengthens you during your mandate. And you can face the other leaders in the European Council with the confidence that you have been elected, just as they have.”
Future for the EU27
Juncker spent few words on Brexit, making clear that his focus was on using Britain’s departure as a way of deepening cooperation among EU countries — something London had long resisted.
“On 29 March 2019, the United Kingdom will leave the European Union,” he said. “This will be a very sad and tragic moment. We will always regret it. But we have to respect the will of the British people.”
The EU should be ready to move on immediately, with an extraordinary summit to be held in Romania, and European parliamentary elections following just a few weeks later.
“My hope is that on 30 March 2019, Europeans will wake up to a Union where we all stand by our values, where all member states firmly respect the rule of law,” Juncker said, drawing his speech to a close. Calling for improvements in economic, labor, social, tax, defense and security policy, he said he envisioned the EU as a place, “where a single president leads the work of the Commission and the European Council, having been elected after a democratic Europe-wide election campaign.”
“If our citizens wake up to this Union on 30 March 2019,” Juncker said, “then they should be able vote in the European Parliament elections a few weeks later with the firm conviction that our Union is a place that works for them.”